![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe during this time has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic and coinfer the geographic location of ancestral lineages as well as the number of migration events into and between European regions. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. In addition to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, we must undertake vigorous scientific, public health, and societal actions, including significantly increased funding for basic and applied research addressing disease emergence, to prevent this tragic history from repeating itself.The investigation of migratory patterns during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before spring 2020 border closures in Europe is a crucial first step toward an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. The risk of similar coronavirus outbreaks in the future remains high. Unfortunately, few such preventive actions were taken resulting in the latest coronavirus emergence detected in late 2019 which quickly spread pandemically. Scientists have warned for decades that such sarbecoviruses are poised to emerge again and again, identified risk factors, and argued for enhanced pandemic prevention and control efforts. The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, in 2019, and subsequently spread globally to become the fifth documented pandemic since the 1918 flu pandemic. Nevertheless, a large body of virologic, epidemiologic, veterinary, and ecologic data establishes that the new virus, SARS-CoV-2, evolved directly or indirectly from a β-coronavirus in the sarbecovirus (SARS-like virus) group that naturally infect bats and pangolins in Asia and Southeast Asia. Even among China hawks, the Chinese government’s refusal to cooperate on solving the mystery takes a. As with all past pandemics, the specific mechanism of its emergence in humans remains unknown. Finding the origin of Covid-19 does not appear to be a priority of the Biden administration. The COVID-19 pandemic is among the deadliest infectious diseases to have emerged in recent history. 15 15Viral Pathogenesis and Evolution Section, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.14 14Crozet BioPharma LLC, Devens, Massachusetts.13 13Galveston National Laboratory and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas.12 12Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York.11 11Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York.10 10National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory at Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts.9 9Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.8 8Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts.7 7Department of Microbiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.6 6Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.5 5Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.4 4Arthropod-borne and Infectious Diseases Laboratory, Department of Microbiology, Immunology & Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.3 3American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Arlington, Virginia.2 2National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.1 1American Committee on Arthropod-Borne Viruses, American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Arlington, Virginia. ![]()
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